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SPORTS
BETTING 101
Why Gamble on Sports?
by Jim Campbell
by Jim Campbell
Men and woman have in all likelihood been gambling on this or that since the beginning of time, mostly for the sheer pleasure and excitement of it all, thus the reason that bookmakers have been around just as long as gamblers themselves.
Its really not that big of a stretch of the ole imagination to think that today’s gamblers are no different than gamblers of old, the only real difference is what gamblers of old wagered on and what gamblers of today wager on. Today we gamble on a lot of the very same things that gamblers of yesterday wagered on, with regard to wagering on horse races, cards, dice, and even political elections to name a few, but gamblers today have the ability to wager on a much wider assortment of things including but not limited to church and fire hall bingo, slot machines, poker machines and even state sponsored lotteries, heck, today we even have a state who has an economy built around gambling halls or what we now refer to as casinos.
It’s kind of hard to believe that it was not all that long ago when a gambler interested in wagering on a sporting event was more or less forced to run his/her wager thru a local bookmaker and thus had to take the line given if he or she wanted to place a wager, unless of course the same gambler had access to other “outs”, meaning that this same gambler had an out of town connection that he used in order to allow himself or herself to gain an edge with respect to the posted spread or money line placed on an event.
In days gone by before the invention of the personal computer, a smart gambler with the right connections could find more than his fair share of “Middle's”, meaning that if for example NFL team Blue were at home against NFL team Red, it was not that unusual to find the hometown Blue team bet up with the local books because of hometown sentiment while the line placed on the visiting Red team in their hometown would hold steady or be bet down.
Thus, a savvy guy or gal with the right connections in both the Blue city as well as in the Red city might just find a 2 or a 2 1/2 point and sometimes even a 3 point difference in the local line from town to town if he or she looked hard enough and did not hesitate on making a wager upon finding the difference in posted lines city to city.
As an example, lets say that the home Blue team was favored to win by 5.5 points on the opening line but by game time the home town Blue backers had bet the line up to –7 points, meanwhile, the visiting Red team’s fans back home bet the line down to +4.5 by game time.
Thus the line at game time in Blue town is +/- 7 while the line in Red town is +/- 4.5, this creates what is known as a “Middle” meaning that a 2.5 point difference now exists between these teams, the worst that can happen is that one wager will lose and one wager will win which means that all that one would lose is the “juice” associated with the wager, meanwhile, the best that can happen is that the actual score falls somewhere in the middle which allows the gambler to collect on both ends.
Today however, sports wagering is getting bigger and bigger thanks to the availability of the home computer, cable TV, sports talk radio, and of course the influx of so many off shore sports books, thus the days of finding a good many “middles” are gone although an astute gambler can still catch a middle opportunity now and then if he or she keeps their eyes open.
The lines placed on sporting events today are a lot sharper then in days gone by, but it all evens out in the end because the odds maker is now not the only one privy to the multitude of information available surrounding any given sporting event, this is of course due to the large number of gamblers today owning a home P.C. which allows the savvy gambler to not only gain valuable handicapping information via the internet, but to also “line shop”.
So, the real question my friend is “Why should today’s savvy gambler wager on sports instead of wagering on other games of chance”?
Quite simply because a gambler has a much better chance of winning on a consistent basis when gambling on sporting events than he or she has when playing any casino game, slot or poker machine, the state lottery or for that matter any other game of chance, except for maybe poker or blackjack, but regardless of whether you gamble on poker, blackjack or sports, the savvy gambler must have a firm understanding of the game itself and must do his or her homework.
When it comes to wagering on major sports such as football, baseball, basketball and hockey, usually a spread or money line is placed on the game by the lines maker and then this established spread or money line is wagered on by the gambler, however, most novices as well as a lot of supposed experienced gamblers make the mistake of believing that the spread or money line placed on a sporting event is a true indicator of one teams strength and ability versus the opposing teams strength and ability.
The truth of the matter is that the spread or money line placed on a game is meant to garner equal action by the gambler on both teams involved, the winner wins his wager while the loser pays the “juice” associated with the particular wager that he or she placed, thus creating the commission that the middleman or bookmaker/sports book makes for handling the transaction between winning and losing gamblers.
The serious gambler understands that it is not the bookmaker or sports book who is his or her enemy, the true enemy is actually the “Joe public” bettor that places uninformed, opinionated wagers which of course causes what is referred to as line movement.
Line movement is simply the difference +/- in what the opening spread or money line was on a particular event versus what the closing numbers were on the same event, it must of course be understood that many factors can and will influence the opening and closing numbers on an event, including but not limited to weather and injury concerns, but always remember that it is the very same “Joe public” bettor that still influences the established line when they hear of possible weather or injury concerns amongst other things and thus often creates an over reaction with regard to line movement.
Its all about odds and percentages when it comes to gambling my friend, and that is what truly sets apart sports wagering versus other forms of gambling, take a moment and think about it, if you wager on a football game for example and the posted line is –3 or –5 or minus whatever, it is still a 50% proposition on a straight wager that you are either right or you are wrong which makes the odds essentially the same as a coin toss.
Of course you must take into consideration that you pay more when you lose, thus on a straight wager you pay 11 to 10 odds or 110 to 100 dollars wagered, thus the real “Break even” point or winning percentage that you must achieve on straight wagers is actually 52.38% in order to avoid a monetary loss.
Keeping in mind that 52.38% is the break even point with regard to straight wagers, a gambler needs to realize that anything above this percentage is money made, most honest, professional handicappers achieve winning percentages of 57% to 60% over the course of an entire season, often the more experienced handicapper can achieve winning rates of 60% to 65% if the ball bounces right for him or her here and there over the course of the season.
I pointed out the above with regard to what the “Break even” percentage is versus how honest professionals fare over the course of an entire season for a reason, did you ever notice those ads placed in Fridays edition of the USA Today newspaper by scamdicappers claiming winning percentages of 80% or 85% or 90%?
Ever see those claims of “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game of the year”? Heck, if you get up early enough on Saturday or Sunday morning you can even catch a scamdicapper show or two on TV with some of the very same individuals whose ads were in the previous Fridays USA Today newspaper.
Ads such as the ones described above are designed to sucker in the poor souls who in all likelihood have dug holes for themselves and are panicking, in a lot of cases these panicked losers will do or pay anything for a “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game of the year”, I would even venture a guess that this sort of desperate gambler knows in their heart that those claims of 80% or 85% or 90% winners are bogus.
So how did this desperate gambler get into his or her situation to begin with? It happens season in and season out because of a failure to start with a dedicated starting bankroll that is used solely for sports wagering which negates the need to use monies ear marked for the mortgage or car payment.
A dedicated starting bankroll and a firm understanding of money management is a must if anyone wants to survive the peaks and valleys and ups and downs of the season long marathon that is involved with sports wagering.
I will get into the different aspects surrounding money management and other topics in another article, but for now remember the key points brought out in this article, the importance of doing your homework, understanding that the line or odds placed on a contest is meant to garner “equal action” which means that Joe Public is the reason for line movement which of course amplifies the importance of shopping for the best available line thru multiple “outs” while keeping an eye open for middling possibilities.
Its really not that big of a stretch of the ole imagination to think that today’s gamblers are no different than gamblers of old, the only real difference is what gamblers of old wagered on and what gamblers of today wager on. Today we gamble on a lot of the very same things that gamblers of yesterday wagered on, with regard to wagering on horse races, cards, dice, and even political elections to name a few, but gamblers today have the ability to wager on a much wider assortment of things including but not limited to church and fire hall bingo, slot machines, poker machines and even state sponsored lotteries, heck, today we even have a state who has an economy built around gambling halls or what we now refer to as casinos.
It’s kind of hard to believe that it was not all that long ago when a gambler interested in wagering on a sporting event was more or less forced to run his/her wager thru a local bookmaker and thus had to take the line given if he or she wanted to place a wager, unless of course the same gambler had access to other “outs”, meaning that this same gambler had an out of town connection that he used in order to allow himself or herself to gain an edge with respect to the posted spread or money line placed on an event.
In days gone by before the invention of the personal computer, a smart gambler with the right connections could find more than his fair share of “Middle's”, meaning that if for example NFL team Blue were at home against NFL team Red, it was not that unusual to find the hometown Blue team bet up with the local books because of hometown sentiment while the line placed on the visiting Red team in their hometown would hold steady or be bet down.
Thus, a savvy guy or gal with the right connections in both the Blue city as well as in the Red city might just find a 2 or a 2 1/2 point and sometimes even a 3 point difference in the local line from town to town if he or she looked hard enough and did not hesitate on making a wager upon finding the difference in posted lines city to city.
As an example, lets say that the home Blue team was favored to win by 5.5 points on the opening line but by game time the home town Blue backers had bet the line up to –7 points, meanwhile, the visiting Red team’s fans back home bet the line down to +4.5 by game time.
Thus the line at game time in Blue town is +/- 7 while the line in Red town is +/- 4.5, this creates what is known as a “Middle” meaning that a 2.5 point difference now exists between these teams, the worst that can happen is that one wager will lose and one wager will win which means that all that one would lose is the “juice” associated with the wager, meanwhile, the best that can happen is that the actual score falls somewhere in the middle which allows the gambler to collect on both ends.
Today however, sports wagering is getting bigger and bigger thanks to the availability of the home computer, cable TV, sports talk radio, and of course the influx of so many off shore sports books, thus the days of finding a good many “middles” are gone although an astute gambler can still catch a middle opportunity now and then if he or she keeps their eyes open.
The lines placed on sporting events today are a lot sharper then in days gone by, but it all evens out in the end because the odds maker is now not the only one privy to the multitude of information available surrounding any given sporting event, this is of course due to the large number of gamblers today owning a home P.C. which allows the savvy gambler to not only gain valuable handicapping information via the internet, but to also “line shop”.
So, the real question my friend is “Why should today’s savvy gambler wager on sports instead of wagering on other games of chance”?
Quite simply because a gambler has a much better chance of winning on a consistent basis when gambling on sporting events than he or she has when playing any casino game, slot or poker machine, the state lottery or for that matter any other game of chance, except for maybe poker or blackjack, but regardless of whether you gamble on poker, blackjack or sports, the savvy gambler must have a firm understanding of the game itself and must do his or her homework.
When it comes to wagering on major sports such as football, baseball, basketball and hockey, usually a spread or money line is placed on the game by the lines maker and then this established spread or money line is wagered on by the gambler, however, most novices as well as a lot of supposed experienced gamblers make the mistake of believing that the spread or money line placed on a sporting event is a true indicator of one teams strength and ability versus the opposing teams strength and ability.
The truth of the matter is that the spread or money line placed on a game is meant to garner equal action by the gambler on both teams involved, the winner wins his wager while the loser pays the “juice” associated with the particular wager that he or she placed, thus creating the commission that the middleman or bookmaker/sports book makes for handling the transaction between winning and losing gamblers.
The serious gambler understands that it is not the bookmaker or sports book who is his or her enemy, the true enemy is actually the “Joe public” bettor that places uninformed, opinionated wagers which of course causes what is referred to as line movement.
Line movement is simply the difference +/- in what the opening spread or money line was on a particular event versus what the closing numbers were on the same event, it must of course be understood that many factors can and will influence the opening and closing numbers on an event, including but not limited to weather and injury concerns, but always remember that it is the very same “Joe public” bettor that still influences the established line when they hear of possible weather or injury concerns amongst other things and thus often creates an over reaction with regard to line movement.
Its all about odds and percentages when it comes to gambling my friend, and that is what truly sets apart sports wagering versus other forms of gambling, take a moment and think about it, if you wager on a football game for example and the posted line is –3 or –5 or minus whatever, it is still a 50% proposition on a straight wager that you are either right or you are wrong which makes the odds essentially the same as a coin toss.
Of course you must take into consideration that you pay more when you lose, thus on a straight wager you pay 11 to 10 odds or 110 to 100 dollars wagered, thus the real “Break even” point or winning percentage that you must achieve on straight wagers is actually 52.38% in order to avoid a monetary loss.
Keeping in mind that 52.38% is the break even point with regard to straight wagers, a gambler needs to realize that anything above this percentage is money made, most honest, professional handicappers achieve winning percentages of 57% to 60% over the course of an entire season, often the more experienced handicapper can achieve winning rates of 60% to 65% if the ball bounces right for him or her here and there over the course of the season.
I pointed out the above with regard to what the “Break even” percentage is versus how honest professionals fare over the course of an entire season for a reason, did you ever notice those ads placed in Fridays edition of the USA Today newspaper by scamdicappers claiming winning percentages of 80% or 85% or 90%?
Ever see those claims of “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game of the year”? Heck, if you get up early enough on Saturday or Sunday morning you can even catch a scamdicapper show or two on TV with some of the very same individuals whose ads were in the previous Fridays USA Today newspaper.
Ads such as the ones described above are designed to sucker in the poor souls who in all likelihood have dug holes for themselves and are panicking, in a lot of cases these panicked losers will do or pay anything for a “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game of the year”, I would even venture a guess that this sort of desperate gambler knows in their heart that those claims of 80% or 85% or 90% winners are bogus.
So how did this desperate gambler get into his or her situation to begin with? It happens season in and season out because of a failure to start with a dedicated starting bankroll that is used solely for sports wagering which negates the need to use monies ear marked for the mortgage or car payment.
A dedicated starting bankroll and a firm understanding of money management is a must if anyone wants to survive the peaks and valleys and ups and downs of the season long marathon that is involved with sports wagering.
I will get into the different aspects surrounding money management and other topics in another article, but for now remember the key points brought out in this article, the importance of doing your homework, understanding that the line or odds placed on a contest is meant to garner “equal action” which means that Joe Public is the reason for line movement which of course amplifies the importance of shopping for the best available line thru multiple “outs” while keeping an eye open for middling possibilities.
How to use proper money management
by Jim Campbell
I recommend wagering NO MORE than 5% of your bankroll on any one game, period. Most of your wagers should be within the 2% to 3% range, I have found that the very best way to protect your bankroll is to incrementally raise or lower the amount that you will wager by "Percentage of Bankroll".
by Jim Campbell
I recommend wagering NO MORE than 5% of your bankroll on any one game, period. Most of your wagers should be within the 2% to 3% range, I have found that the very best way to protect your bankroll is to incrementally raise or lower the amount that you will wager by "Percentage of Bankroll".
Based on each individuals position in life, their starting bankroll will differ. For example, lets say that you have a starting Bankroll of $5000, this should be an amount that is set aside and dedicated to nothing else but sports wagering, don't fall into the trap of the ordinary "Joe Public" type of gambler that does not start the season with a "Dedicated Starting Bankroll" and instead find themselves dipping into their mortgage or rent payment or car payment and before long winds up playing with "Scared Money" because they know that they can not afford to lose, this type of gambler usually ends up digging a hole for themselves that they can not climb out of!!
When utilizing the "Percentage of Bankroll" concept that I mentioned, a top play selection would be 5% of your starting bankroll, in our example let's say its $5000, thus 5% of $5000 is $250.00, a medium play would be 3% of your starting bankroll, but most plays should fall into the "Regular" or small selection status of only 1% or 2% of your starting bankroll.
Each week your starting Bankroll would be different because of how you did the previous week , therefore, each week your wagering amounts which are based on "Percentage of Bankroll" would be different.
In closing I would recommend either using a "Flat Betting" system which means that you wager the same amount on each contest but is still based on percentage of bankroll and self adjusts each week based on your new starting bankroll.
Or use the incremental system of 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, with the vast majority of your wagers falling into the 1% or 2% range to wager different amounts on different games, but keep in mind that the top wager is still only 5% of your bankroll, remember this simple rule of thumb and it will keep you out of trouble my friend!
Using either system as I have outlined will keep your bankroll safe and sound over the ups and downs of a long season. Always remember, sports wagering is NOT a sprint to the finish line, instead its more like a marathon race, and in that regard you HAVE to protect your bankroll at all costs!
Our extraordinary record is based on our outstanding late week selections which have averaged a 57.87% winning rate over the past 23 years and that includes our NFL Best Bets which have achieved a winning rate of 63.05% over the same time period!!
Why use offshore sports books?
By Jim Campbell
Although I started using online sports books over 20 years ago, I still maintained contact with a couple of local books for the express purpose of getting better lines with regard to the local or favorite teams of choice in my neck of the woods, the reasoning of course was so that if I saw "Value" in going against the the local or favorite teams of choice then what better place to get the best line when going against them then in their home area?
I have always held the believe that if you want the best deal available then it would be quite foolhardy to purchase the first car that you see at the first dealership that you visit, that very same line of logical thinking should be applied to "Sports investment" and of course is the very reason why I personally use four different "outs" as a means of gaining as much of an edge as possible with regard to finding the best line on games that I am wagering on, sometimes a half of a point here or a half of a point there can make all the difference in a winning week versus a break even or losing week.
It never ceases to amaze me for example how some people can be misers with regard to insisting that any light left on in a room with no one in it be considered as a capital crime, these same individuals always seem to be the ones not willing to take the wife and kids to a movie or out to a restaurant for lunch or dinner because they may have to fork over a few dollars on something they consider unwarranted and wasteful.
However, these same individuals find nothing wrong with shacking up in a tavern all Saturday or Sunday afternoon with the boys watching the games and betting with the local bookies, don't get me wrong as I like to stop for a beer or two myself now and then, but why do I make this comparison you ask?
Simple my friend, if someone as I described above was truly cost conscious and on a quest of sorts for savings and "Value", why then would anyone in their right mind make sports wagers strictly with local bookies? Aren't these local guys the ones who make you wait until the morning of the game to get their lines? Aren't these the same guys that you have to track down and fight busy signals to reach on the ole telly phone? What real "Value" can be had from a local book that basically shoves his/her line in your face and figuratively speaking says "take it or leave it pal"?
Hometown gamblers using strictly local bookies are missing out on more than just the convenience of being able to place a wager on an upcoming NFL or College football game days in advance, these hometown gamblers using strictly local books are also missing out on their fair share of "Moola"----"Black gold"----"Texas Tea"....No I am not going to start singing about Jed Clampett here but instead about the sign up bonus's offered by online sportsbooks.
Think about it a second, let's say that you have a $5000 starting bankroll that is dedicated to nothing but sports investing, you could deposit the whole $5000 with one sportsbook and get as much as a 20% sign up bonus for doing so, which means that you would now have a starting bankroll of $6000...that's your $5000 plus the $1000 sign up bonus, right?
WRONG!! Most sportsbooks in fact have limits on the total sign up bonus for an individual that ranges anywhere from $200 to $500, if that is the case then why not divide up your initial $5000 starting bankroll four ways between four different sportsbooks and possibly get a 20% sign up bonus from each sportsbook?
$5000 divided four ways would mean that if you were to deposit $1250 at each sportsbook and got a 20% signup bonus with each one, your starting bankroll with each of your four sportsbooks would then be $1250 plus a $250 sign up bonus for a total of $1500. Thus $1500 X 4 means that you now have a $6000 starting bankroll, ( that's your $5000 plus the $1000 in total sign up bonus's ), and your money is now evenly spread out over four different sportsbooks which now allows you to "Line shop".
As you now see, by depositing your entire bankroll with one sportsbook you could actually cost yourself some dinero in lost sign up bonus money, an added benefit of spreading your starting bankroll over three or four different sportsbooks is derived from the fact that sportbooks require you to "Roll over" the amount in your account so many times prior to being able to withdrawl funds.
For example, if the sportsbook that you are using has a five (5) time rollover rule in effect and your initial deposit was $1000.00, you would have received $200 with your initial deposit for a total of $1200 if the sign up bonus was 20%. You would now need to wager a total of $6000 or ( $1000 + $200 ) X 5 in total bets placed before you are entitled to keep the initial sign up bonus and make a withdrawl of your funds, I would however advise you to be careful and to do your homework before depositing any funds anywhere as there are probably just as many "Fly by night" operations out there as there are legitimate and reputable ones.
Ask questions of others that you know who may have used the different sportsbooks and hear what they have to say, troll thru the various forums and posting boards and post messages that ask the opinions and experiences of others. The main over riding factor to the equation is that you want to have the ability to "Line shop" for the best possible odds with as many reputable sources as possible.
By Jim Campbell
Although I started using online sports books over 20 years ago, I still maintained contact with a couple of local books for the express purpose of getting better lines with regard to the local or favorite teams of choice in my neck of the woods, the reasoning of course was so that if I saw "Value" in going against the the local or favorite teams of choice then what better place to get the best line when going against them then in their home area?
I have always held the believe that if you want the best deal available then it would be quite foolhardy to purchase the first car that you see at the first dealership that you visit, that very same line of logical thinking should be applied to "Sports investment" and of course is the very reason why I personally use four different "outs" as a means of gaining as much of an edge as possible with regard to finding the best line on games that I am wagering on, sometimes a half of a point here or a half of a point there can make all the difference in a winning week versus a break even or losing week.
It never ceases to amaze me for example how some people can be misers with regard to insisting that any light left on in a room with no one in it be considered as a capital crime, these same individuals always seem to be the ones not willing to take the wife and kids to a movie or out to a restaurant for lunch or dinner because they may have to fork over a few dollars on something they consider unwarranted and wasteful.
However, these same individuals find nothing wrong with shacking up in a tavern all Saturday or Sunday afternoon with the boys watching the games and betting with the local bookies, don't get me wrong as I like to stop for a beer or two myself now and then, but why do I make this comparison you ask?
Simple my friend, if someone as I described above was truly cost conscious and on a quest of sorts for savings and "Value", why then would anyone in their right mind make sports wagers strictly with local bookies? Aren't these local guys the ones who make you wait until the morning of the game to get their lines? Aren't these the same guys that you have to track down and fight busy signals to reach on the ole telly phone? What real "Value" can be had from a local book that basically shoves his/her line in your face and figuratively speaking says "take it or leave it pal"?
Hometown gamblers using strictly local bookies are missing out on more than just the convenience of being able to place a wager on an upcoming NFL or College football game days in advance, these hometown gamblers using strictly local books are also missing out on their fair share of "Moola"----"Black gold"----"Texas Tea"....No I am not going to start singing about Jed Clampett here but instead about the sign up bonus's offered by online sportsbooks.
Think about it a second, let's say that you have a $5000 starting bankroll that is dedicated to nothing but sports investing, you could deposit the whole $5000 with one sportsbook and get as much as a 20% sign up bonus for doing so, which means that you would now have a starting bankroll of $6000...that's your $5000 plus the $1000 sign up bonus, right?
WRONG!! Most sportsbooks in fact have limits on the total sign up bonus for an individual that ranges anywhere from $200 to $500, if that is the case then why not divide up your initial $5000 starting bankroll four ways between four different sportsbooks and possibly get a 20% sign up bonus from each sportsbook?
$5000 divided four ways would mean that if you were to deposit $1250 at each sportsbook and got a 20% signup bonus with each one, your starting bankroll with each of your four sportsbooks would then be $1250 plus a $250 sign up bonus for a total of $1500. Thus $1500 X 4 means that you now have a $6000 starting bankroll, ( that's your $5000 plus the $1000 in total sign up bonus's ), and your money is now evenly spread out over four different sportsbooks which now allows you to "Line shop".
As you now see, by depositing your entire bankroll with one sportsbook you could actually cost yourself some dinero in lost sign up bonus money, an added benefit of spreading your starting bankroll over three or four different sportsbooks is derived from the fact that sportbooks require you to "Roll over" the amount in your account so many times prior to being able to withdrawl funds.
For example, if the sportsbook that you are using has a five (5) time rollover rule in effect and your initial deposit was $1000.00, you would have received $200 with your initial deposit for a total of $1200 if the sign up bonus was 20%. You would now need to wager a total of $6000 or ( $1000 + $200 ) X 5 in total bets placed before you are entitled to keep the initial sign up bonus and make a withdrawl of your funds, I would however advise you to be careful and to do your homework before depositing any funds anywhere as there are probably just as many "Fly by night" operations out there as there are legitimate and reputable ones.
Ask questions of others that you know who may have used the different sportsbooks and hear what they have to say, troll thru the various forums and posting boards and post messages that ask the opinions and experiences of others. The main over riding factor to the equation is that you want to have the ability to "Line shop" for the best possible odds with as many reputable sources as possible.
How to bet against the point spreads:
by Jim Campbell
Most novice gamblers end up losing their proverbial shirts year in and year out, most failures can be directly attributed to poor money management practices but many more failures are also due to a complete lack of knowledge with regard to how to handicap that particular sport and the factors/situations that come into play week in and week out.
First of all a “Point Spread” is defined as a number placed on an event for wagering purposes and is often expressed in terms of the amount of points one side must spot the other side as a means of evening the playing field for both the favorite and underdog, in most cases a money-line is also attached to the same event so that one may simply wager on either the favorite or underdog to win without having to lay points, keep in mind that its usually football and basketball games that have point spreads.
If there is only one bit of advice that you take from this article, I hope it is this…Keep your eyes and ears open!! I bet you’re wondering “huh” right about now aren’t you? When I say keep your eyes and ears open I am referring to the radio, the TV, and the local newspapers in your area, often local team beat writers glean information from team players or team sources and use that same information for their local radio or TV shows or for the articles that they write for the local newspapers, this same information can be very valuable to you as a gambler if you are able to dissect what is important and what is not and then act upon the important information before the rest of the world does, this gives you what is referred to as an “edge”.
The point of the matter is that you have a wealth of information at your fingertips with regard to the local college and professional teams in your area and in most cases this information can be accessed by you before the rest of the betting public learns about it and you can use this to your advantage, by no means am I saying to disregard the rest of the teams in the league and not care what is going on with them, what I am saying is that if you want to defeat the posted point spread you have to look for edges and often an edge can be found by concentrating on local information about local teams.
I advocate using multiple “outs” for placing wagers as a means of garnering the best possible point spread on any game you intend wagering on, in this day and age a gambler has access to many off shore sports books and it’s a good idea to utilize at least three or four of these for line shopping purposes, but remember to do your homework before simply signing up with just any off shore sports book, most are reputable but some are not.
However it is also a good idea to have a local book that you can place wagers with for the express purpose of wagering against local teams, remember that local teams are also generally popular teams to wager on for the local run of the mill gamblers in your area, meaning that you must usually lay a higher point spread number if wagering on a local team thru a local book, thus the rule of thumb is to use off shore books when wagering ON local teams but use local books when wagering AGAINST local teams.
If you want to defeat the point spread you have to remain ahead of the proverbial curve, this means that you must out-work other gamblers with regard to having and acting on information before they do, I personally do a ton of off-season work and I recommend that you do the same, for example, it’s a good idea to go over each teams schedule as soon as it is released for the upcoming season and finding potential bad spots for each team.
By bad spots in the schedule I mean taking note of the potential pitfalls or scheduling quirks that might affect a teams performance, for example, when a team is playing on the road for a third straight week, or when a team has played two or three straight divisional games and are in line to play a non conference team next, or if a team is playing on a short week because they just played on Monday night or if a team has been bouncing back and forth from the east coast to the west coast or visa versa.
Know in advance to the start of the new season by studying the schedule if a team is revenge minded against another team for an embarrassing loss or for knocking them out of the playoffs the previous year, try to study and concentrate on historical data from past divisional match ups, the reason is because divisional teams face each other at least twice yearly which means that often you can find a team that for one reason or another continues to dominate another.
Know in advance to the start of the new season what players a team lost to free agency or trades and what players they added via the draft and/or free agency and don’t forget to consider any coaching changes, a complete turnover in coaching staffs is a hard thing to overcome and often means that a team will struggle in the early going of a new season because that team is still trying to learn a new system.
The astute gambler will then take all of the information he or she has gathered during the off season and will prior to the start of the new season make up a set of power ratings which are then updated on a weekly basis once the regular season starts, a smart sports gambler will have a set personal schedule that they adhere to once the season is under way, keeping in mind that your off season work has already pinpointed potential scheduling problems and you have a set of power ratings in place, you can now use this information to better evaluate the opening Monday morning lines for the next week.
Monday morning is also a good time to check the injury reports of each team as well as advance weather reports for the upcoming weekend’s slate of games, as the week progresses you want to continue to monitor the posted point spread as well as the latest injury and weather reports, if you have already isolated a contest that has perceived value to you and that team is listed as the favorite it is usually best to make your wager as soon as possible, on the other hand if you like a doggie in a particular contest its best to wait until almost game time to place your wager.
The reasoning has to do with the way “Joe Public” bettors wager, which is usually on the listed favorite, by placing your wager early in the week (if you like the favorite) you are locking in your line before the general public has a chance to move the point spread upward, on the flip side if you like the doggie you want the public to drive the line upward so that you can get as many points as possible.
I could go on and on with this article but the end result would resemble a book, hopefully you will take some of this advice to heart, the one item that I did not touch on in this article but is probably the most important aspect of gambling is money management, without some sort of game plan with regard to protecting your bankroll you will surely lose your shirt and not be around placing wagers at seasons end.
Please refer to another article that I have already written simply entitled “Money Management”, the article explains in detail the system that I personally utilize as a means of protecting my bankroll over the course of a long season, one last bit of advise, remember that the betting public is generally wrong which is the reason Las Vegas is still standing, meaning that you should do your homework and follow your instincts and not those of the talking heads in the media or those of your drinking buddies.
WHY YOU SHOULD LISTEN TO WHAT WE HAVE TO SAY
Jim Campbell, who is better known as the "Dirtydog" got his start in the Sports Investment Business at the ripe young age of 12 when he discovered Parlay Cards, the type of cards in which the bettor must pick at least three teams to play and ties lose. Its been over 50 years since he got his start by distributing those cards, and since that time he has traveled the world over serving six years in the U.S. Marine Corps. While on active duty as a "grunt" 0311 and 0341 serving in the infantry, Jim was deployed numerous times for various operations across Europe and Asia, he manned the lines at the Korean DMZ, was detached for Operation Cuban Flotilla, and crossed the Indian Ocean enroute to Iran making him a "Shellback" twice over.
Once Jim became a former Marine he then managed restaurants for 13 years with Bob Evans and Red Lobster, however, the need to get out and see new things resonated once again. So Jim got his CDL, took the handle of "Dirtydog" and proceeded to travel or live in all 48 continental states as a professional "tourist", meaning that he traveled behind the wheel of an 18 wheeler!! Traveling the U.S. as extensively as he did proved very helpful as a means of networking and building up a portfolio of useful contacts that extend from the left coast to the right coast. After 15 years of traveling across the United States the Dirtydog traded in his gear shift for a computer mouse and became a transportation broker / dispatcher which has allowed him to maintain his contacts across the country via daily conversations with shippers, recievers, drivers and other freight brokers.....this constant contact has paid dividends many times over with regard to getting advance information about home town sports teams before it hits the national media.
At one time or another since 1971, Jim Campbell has been on both sides of the Sports Investment Business, he has seen it all with regard to the inner workings that occur from each side of the proverbial fence. It is that same experience and insight that has made him ultra successful both as a professional sports handicapper and as an entrepreneur that has built and maintained a private clientele base that greatly benefits from his superior handicapping expertise in the sporting arena.
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TESTIMONIALS
Woof ...... woof...... woof...... woof .....Keep it going Dirtydog....You are helping me pay for that new TV....if you keep going I'll have the dish too in a couple of weeks!!...Thanks J Laird
A big congratulation on UCLA, Creighton,and Tennessee. You definitely are the boss....Maggio
Thanks for all of your fantastic work and insight as your analysis are always top-notch. Happy Holidays to you and yours.....Slim Chance
Keep up the good work, I took one of ur pick last Sunday and won 2.5 k . so thanz again....Jason Phan
Thanks for the last 2 weeks!!! I can't express enough how Your analysis is researched, thought out, and second to none. A very Merry Christmas to you and your family. My seven year old daughter and my 4 year old boy are taking 300 dollars of winnings today and buying toys for a family that needs Santa to visit as well. ( They do not know it is winnings, but you and I do.) Thanks again and I look forward to this week as well. Later....TREYBOP